Utah State vs Air Force Odds, Predictions & Picks

Feb 10, 2023; Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA; Air Force Falcons forward Rytis Petraitis (31) controls the ball in the second half against the New Mexico Lobos at Clune Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY SportsUtah State and Air Force begin their Mountain West campaigns on Tuesday afternoonThe Aggies are big road favorites over the Falcons in Colorado SpringsSee the Utah State vs Air Force odds, predictions, and betting trends for Jan. 2

The first Mountain West game of the season takes place in Colorado Springs on Tuesday as the Utah State Aggies (12-1, 2-1 away, 5-5-1 ATS) visit the Air Force Falcons (7-5, 4-3 home, 4-8 ATS) at Clune Arena at 3:00 pm CT/4:00 pm ET.

Off to a strong start under first-year coach Danny Sprinkle, the overhauled Aggies are big road favorites over the Falcons on Tuesday afternoon.

Utah State vs Air Force Odds

Tuesday’s college basketball odds list Utah State as 7.5-point chalk and -345 on the moneyline. The Falcons come back as +270 home underdogs.  The total is sitting at 136, which is the second-lowest total of a Utah State game this season. The Aggies are 7-4 over/under in 11 games against DI competition. Air Force, which is playing at the 11th-slowest pace in the country, is 7-5 O/U.

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Odds as of Jan. 2 at Bet365. Claim a Bet365 bonus code to bet on Utah State vs Air Force. 

Despite a strong start to the season, Utah State is not among the top-50 favorites in the March Madness odds.

Retooled Utah State Starts Strong Under Sprinkle

When former head coach Ryan Odom left for VCU in the offseason, Utah State saw a mass exodus in the transfer portal. In addition to losing second-leading scorer Taylor Funk and third-leading scorer Dan Akin to graduation, the Aggies each of its other top-eight scorers enter the transfer portal.

But first-year coach Danny Sprinkle has done an admirable job piecing together a new team. Led by Montana State transfer Grant Osobor (17.3 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.6 BPG), Maryland transfer Ian Martinez (12.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG), and freshman Mason Falslev (11.1 PPG, 3.1 APG), the Aggies are rated 57th in efficiency at KenPom (75th on offense and 54th on defense). Their only loss to date was a true road game at Bradley which went to overtime (72-66).

Utah State already has a top-50 win over San Francisco (54-53) in Salt Lake City, plus a top-75 victory over UC Irvine (79-69 home), and five other top-200 wins. The San Francisco game wasn’t their finest offensive performance of the season and featured some fortunate bounces near the end, but it was still a massive confidence-booster for the overhauled roster.

The one area where Utah State has really struggled this season is three-point shooting. The Aggies are hitting at just 29.2% from beyond the arc (312th out of 363 DI teams) but their 57.5% clip from inside the arc has more than made up for it so far.

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Air Force Riding Three-Game Losing Streak

Like Utah State, Air Force also saw its leading scorer transfer (Jake Heidbreder, Clemson). But three of Joe Scott’s other top-six scorers returned and expectations were relatively high that the Falcons could improve on a 14-18 record from last season.

Results so far have been thoroughly mixed. After starting the season 1-2 with setbacks to Portland State (62-55 home) and Delaware (65-57 away), Air Force went on a six-game win streak, including a dominant 80-58 road win at Portland (262nd at KenPom).

That streak came to an abrupt halt on Dec. 9, though, with a 73-68 setback to Eastern Washington at home and the skid continued with a  76-73 road loss at UT Arlington and an 83-79 home loss to Northern Colorado. The Falcons, who were as high as 150th at KenPom after the Portland win, have dropped nearly 50 spots to 199th during their three-game skid.

Abysmal defense has been the theme through the last trio of games. During its six-game win streak, Air Force held all of its opponents to 62 points or fewer in regulation time. They have surrendered at least 73 points in each of the last three games, and each consecutive loss saw Air Force set a new season-worst for points allowed.

The only good news coming out of the losing streak is that sophomore forward Ryan Petraitis has continued to play well since returning from injury. In five games this season, the Arlington native is averaging a team-high 18.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 3.8 APG.

Utah State vs Air Force Prediction

It’s admirable what Sprinkle has been able to do with a roster of new faces. The Aggies are on the cusp of the top 50 at KenPom (57th), Haslametrics (56th), and Torvik (59th) thanks to their 12-1 start. At the same time, Air Force is not nearly as bad as its looked during its three-game slide.

The college basketball public betting splits for this game show a fairly even divide in ATS handle (52% to 48% for Utah State) but a wildly massive split in ATS money (98% on the favored Aggies). I am not nearly as sold on the outcome. Expect a much better defensive effort from the Falcons after having nearly two weeks to sit and stew over their recent skid.

Utah State vs Air Force Prediction: Air Force first-half moneyline (+180 on the FanDuel app)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

ATS: 13-11 (+0.79 units)Moneyline: 0-1 (-1.00 units)Player props: 1-2 (-1.13 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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