Dolphins vs Chiefs Odds, Picks and Best Bets for Week 9 In Frankfurt, Germany

Oct 29, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) celebrates his touchdown against the New England Patriots with wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY SportsSunday’s Week 9 NFL action gets started bright and early from Frankfurt, Germany at 9:30 am ESTThe game features of a battle of NFL MVP favorites in Tua Tagovailoa and Patrick MahomesGet the Dolphins vs Chiefs odds, picks, and predictions for Sunday morning here

The NFL goes to Germany in Week 9 as Frankfurt’s Deutsche Bank Park will be the site of Sunday morning’s Miami vs Kansas City matchup. The Dolphins (6-2) are 2-point underdogs in the Dolphins vs Chiefs odds. Both teams lead their division, but the Chiefs (6-2) are coming off a tough loss to the Broncos last week and will be looking to rebound. Read on for our top Miami vs Kansas City picks for the game here.

It’s a battle of two favorites in the NFL MVP odds between Tua Tagovailos and Patrick Mahomes with Tusa first in passing yards and touchdowns and Mahomes third in yards and fifth in touchdowns.

Tyreek Hill will lineup against his old team as he played with the Chiefs from 2016-2021. He’ll surely be licking his lips to get involved in the game and could be worth a bet in Miami vs Kansas City props. Hill leads all wide receivers this year with 1,014 yards to go along with eight touchdowns.

Dolphins vs Chiefs Odds

Kansas City comes into this one as 2-point favorites in the NFL spreads and -125 moneyline favorites in the Dolphins vs Chiefs odds. That gives them an implied probability of 55.56. The total on this game is the highest of the week at 51.

Odds as of November 4 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out DraftKings and other NFL betting promos to get you set up with a great bonus to use for NFL Week 9.

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How to Watch Miami vs Kansas City

The game kicks off at 9:30 am EST and viewers can watch Miami vs Kansas on NFL Network and NBC in the United States. Viewers in Canada can watch on DAZN.

The weather forecast calls for 54 degrees, light rain and daytime SW winds of 14 mph, with potential wind gusts of 33 mph. However, Deutsche Bank Park has a retractable roof so should the weather become poor, surely a closed roof would eliminate any if those handicapping concerns.

Dolphins vs Chiefs History

Miami and Kansas City haven’t played since 2020 with the Chiefs winning in Miami 33-27. The Chiefs have now won three in a row over the Fins but those other two wins came in 2017 (29-13) and 2014 (34-15).

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Dolphins 6-2, But 0-2 vs Teams With a Winning Record

Maimi have been bullies this season. Their 6-2 record is impressive. They’re also 6-2 in the NFL ATS records. But with wins over the Chargers, Patriots (x2), Broncos, Giants and Panthers, those teams have combined for a 11-27 record. When they’ve played winning teams like the Bills (5-3) and Eagles (7-1) they’re 0-2.

Last week was versus a losing team, the Patriots. While the Pats scored first to take a 7-0 lead, Miami evened it up, took a 14-7 lead in the second quarter and never relinquished the lead going on to win 31-17.

The scoreline may flatter New England a bit when you consider they only had 218 yards of offense and two of their three scores came off of Miami turnovers.

The Dolphins offense is easily first in PPG at 33.9. The Cowboys come in second at 28.1. Their passing game is first in yards per game (301.5) and they’re also first in rushing YPG (151.8).

Miami’s weakness is on the defensive side of the ball where they’re giving up 25.5 PPG (25th) to go with 221.5 passing yards allowed per game (16th) and 107.9 rushing yards allowed (17th).

https://twitter.com/espn/status/1720129843637924097

Mahomes 8-0 Following a Loss

The Chiefs are coming off a rather embarrassing 24-9 loss in Denver last week. Mahomes was battling the flu and it showed. He was 24/38, 240 yards and zero touchdowns with two interceptions. In fact, the Chiefs turned the ball over all game with three fumbles as well to lose the turnover battle 5-1. They were also 0/3 in red zone scoring.

But that was last week. Looking forward there are several stats that back a Chiefs and Mahomes rebound. Mahomes is 14-3 SU following a loss and is currently riding an 8-0 run in that scenario. When the spread is seven points or less in this spot, he is 8-3 ATS.

Kansas City, usually the team piling up the offensive statistics, have been more defensively strong this season.

The Chiefs are second in PPG allowed (16.1), second in passing yards allowed per game (176.1) and 19th in rushing yards allowed per game (111.6). Prior to last game, they had not allowed an opening drive touchdown in 12 games going back into last season.

On offense, they’re only scoring 23.4 PPG (12th), while being third in passing yards (276.4) and 21st in rushing yards (105.1).

Mahomes is not having a great season statistically by his standards. But his receivers have also dropped passes at the highest rate during his career and he’s already been hit 35 times this year. Last year he was a hit a combined 56 times all season. Those 35 knock downs are tied with Josh Dobbs for the second-most, behind only Kirk Cousins with 45.

The Chiefs have scored a TD on 12.8% (5-of-39) of their drives in the 2nd half (30th) as opposed to 31.1% (14-of-45) of their drives in the 1st half (4th).

Miami has allowed 31+ points to every legitimate QB they have faced.

Previewing Miami vs KC 🔽https://t.co/ZBqUMMmTn9

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 2, 2023

Dolphins vs Chiefs Prediction

The Dolphins theoretically have the preparation advantage. They left Miami on Monday evening and arrived in Germany on Tuesday morning. Considering Germany is five hours ahead of Miami, it gave the team time to have a day off on Wednesday and also to adjust their bodies to the sleep schedule. The Chiefs meanwhile only arrived in Frankfurt on Friday. They are six hours behind time-wise.

While this game looks like it has shootout potential for totals bettors to hammer the Over in their Dolphins vs Chiefs odds, consider that of the four previous international games that had a total of 50 or more points, they all fell Under the total by 11 points or more. The Chiefs themselves, have gone Under totals of 50+ each of the last six times.

The one weakness the Dolphins can try to attack against the Chiefs is on the ground where the Chiefs are 19th. But Kansas City will likely be countering with their favorite weapon, Travis Kelce. Only the Broncos have allowed more receptions to tight ends than the Dolphins and only four teams have allowed more yards to the position as well.

No outcome would be a real surprise here between these two juggernauts. But we just haven’t seen Miami beat anyone good. In fact, when they’ve gone up against any top quarterback, such as Justin Herbert, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, they’ve given up 31+ points for an average of 38.33 points against. Mahomes is just as good and better than that group. So let’s take KC in our Dolphins vs Chiefs picks. With the short spread, no need to risk this coming down to a point or two. We’ll take the moneyline.

Dolphins vs Chiefs Picks: Chiefs moneyline (-125)

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