Phillies vs Braves Player Props, Picks & Odds for Game 2

Oct 7, 2023; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Bryson Stott (5) turns a double play over Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley (27) during the eighth inning during game one of the NLDS for the 2023 MLB playoffs at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY SportsThe Philadelphia Phillies look to take a commanding 2-0 lead on the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of the NLDSPhilly starter Zack Wheeler has historically dominated this Braves lineup, while Atlanta starter Max Fried has a far worse history against the PhilliesSee the Phillies vs Braves Game 2 odds, player props, and expert picks

Tonight at Truist Park in Atlanta, the Philadelphia Phillies (93-72, 42-40 away) have a chance to take a commanding 2-0 lead in their best-of-five NLDS with the Atlanta Braves (104-59, 52-30 home). A year after ousting Braves in this exact same spot – and going onto win the NL Pennant – the Phillies have picked up right where they left off. After a two-game mini sweep of the Miami Marlins in the Wild Card, Philadelphia got a dominant pitching performance from Ranger Suarez in a 3-0 victory in Game 1.

Today, despite having ace Zack Wheeler on the mound, the Phillies are once again significant plus-money underdogs to win. First pitch at Truist Park is scheduled for 6:07 pm ET.

Phillies vs Braves Game 2 Odds

Atlanta enters Game 2 as a -150 home favorite to even the series and +130 on the runline to win by multiple runs. The Phillies are +130 to win straight-up and -155 to keep the game within a run. The run total is at 8.0, same as Game 1, which stayed under by five runs.

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Philly’s Game 1 win shot them up the NL Pennant odds, where they are now +189 favorites. The Braves only fell to second at +227 thanks to the fact that the LA Dodgers also lost Game 1 of their NLDS with the Arizona Diamondbacks in the bottom-half of the MLB playoff bracket.

Philadelphia vs Atlanta Starting Pitchers

Philadelphia has the luxury of handing the ball to ace Zack Wheeler, who was excellent in Game 1 against the Marlins (6.2 IP, eight strikeouts, no walks, five hits, one run). Atlanta, meanwhile, sends Max Fried to the bump. Fried had an excellent regular season but hasn’t pitched since Sep. 21 due to a blister on his index finger.

Zack Wheeler vs Max Fried

WheelerVSFried

Wheeler was instrumental in Philly’s run to the NL Pennant last season, leading the team with 35.2 IP while posting a 2.78 ERA and absurdly good 0.73 WHIP. He also has excellent numbers against the Atlanta lineup, which is slashing just .217/.256/.406 against the veteran righty in a massive sample size of 286 at-bats. Ten Atlanta hitters have faced Wheeler at least 11 times, and only one (Travis d’Arnaud) has an average over .275.

One encouraging stat for the Braves is that presumpting NL MVP Ronald Acuna, while hitting just .261 off Wheeler, has connected for power when getting his bat on the ball. Acuna has four home runs and four doubles off Wheeler in 46 at-bats.

The Phillies lineup has, on the whole, posted considerably better numbers against Fried (.299/.349/.495), again in a significant sample size of 194 at-bats. Both Nick Castellanos (8-for-13, one double, one homer) and Trea Turner (14-for-35, two doubles, one homer) have eaten up the 6’4 lefty, while JT Realmuto also has a .350 average including three dingers off Fried.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvD34sBnP1U

Now 29 years old, Fried has a decent amount of postseason experience, but his numbers are considerably worse in the playoffs compared to the regular season (4.43 playoff ERA versus 3.03 regular-season ERA). That includes a dismal performance against the Phillies last season, giving up eight hits and six runs (four earned) over just 3.1 innings in a 7-6 Game 1 loss.

Phillies vs Braves Player Props for Game 2

Monday’s MLB player props include three player who are shorter than +400 to hit a home run in Game 2 and, curiously, they are all on the Braves: Matt Olson is the shortest at +360, while Acuna and Ozuna are both +380. The shortest odds among Philly players belong to Kyle Schwarber (+425) and Trea Turner (+500).

The pitcher props mostly favor Wheeler having a longer and more-productive outing. His strikeout prop is one higher (5.5 versus 4.5) and his total outs recorded number is also one higher (15.5 versus 14.5).

Phillies vs Braves Prediction for Game 2

The odds here are skewed too heavily in Atlanta’s favor. The Phillies are not only blazingly hot, they have their best pitcher on the mound, a pitcher who has a long history of shutting down these Atlanta hitters. On the opposite side is a pitcher who was not only tagged by the Phillies in the playoffs last year, but who’s also been on the shelf for the past three weeks.

There is solid value on the Phillies’ moneyline at +130, and I also expect another deep outing from Wheeler, who needs one out in the sixth inning to hit the over on 15.5 outs.

Phillies vs Braves Picks:

Phillies moneyline (+130)Wheeler over 15.5 outs recorded (-120)

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