Lightning vs Penguins Prediction, Odds & Picks

Mar 3, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) chases the puck against Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby (87) during the second period at the PPG PAINTS Arena. The Penguins won 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY SportsThe Lightning and Penguins clash on Saturday afternoon hockeyThe Saturday odds favor the Bolts by a slim margin on the roadRead below for Lightning vs Penguins prediction, odds and picks

The Tampa Bay Lightning visit the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday afternoon in an intriguing Eastern Conference matchup with playoff implications. Puck drop at PPG Paints Arena is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET with the game televised on ABC and streamed on ESPN+.

The Lightning enter as slight -115 moneyline favorites while the Penguins are -105 home underdogs. The over/under is set at six goals.

Let’s get into our Penguins vs Lightning prediction as we analyze the odds and determine the best bets to make.

Lightning vs Penguins Odds

In the Saturday NHL odds, the Lightning are slight -115 moneyline favorites over the Penguins, giving them an implied win probability of 53.5%.

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Lightning Betting Outlook

Tampa Bay (43-26-7, 93 points) currently holds the first Wild Card spot in the East but is just two points behind Toronto for third place in the Atlantic Division. The Lightning are riding a two-game win streak after a 7-4 road victory over the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday.

Superstar winger Nikita Kucherov continues to lead the NHL in scoring with 133 points (43 goals, 90 assists) in 75 games. Kucherov has been on fire lately with seven points in his last three contests, including a goal and two assists on Thursday. Captain Steven Stamkos is second on the team with 91 points and scored twice against Montreal.

The Lightning boast an elite power play, ranking first in the NHL at 29.1%. They have scored on 67 of 230 man-advantage opportunities this season. However, their penalty kill is more middle of the pack at 83.0% (5th).

In net, reigning Vezina Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to start. Vasilevskiy is 29-17-2 with a 2.82 goals against average and .901 save percentage. He was excellent in his last outing, stopping 28 of 29 shots in a 4-1 win over Toronto on Wednesday.

On the injury front, the Lightning have several players questionable for Saturday including forwards Brandon Hagel (undisclosed), Anthony Cirelli (undisclosed) and Tanner Jeannot (upper body), as well as backup goalie Jonas Johansson (lower body). Defensemen Mikhail Sergachev (leg) and Brent Seabrook (shoulder) remain out.

Penguins Betting Outlook

Pittsburgh (35-30-11, 81 points) is making a late playoff push, going 5-0-2 in their last seven games to pull within two points of the Islanders for the final Wild Card spot. The Penguins are coming off an impressive 4-1 road win over the Capitals on Thursday.

As usual, Sidney Crosby is leading the way for Pittsburgh. The 35-year-old center tops the team with 84 points (39 goals, 45 assists) in 74 games. Crosby had a six-game point streak snapped on Thursday but has still recorded five points in his last three outings. Evgeni Malkin is second with 74 points.

Sidney Crosby seems to be singled-handedly trying to will the Penguins into a playoff spot pic.twitter.com/B2yrEK2KdP

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) April 4, 2024

Unlike the Lightning, the Penguins have struggled mightily on the power play. They rank 31st in the NHL at just 14.7%, scoring on only 36 of 245 chances. Their penalty kill is better but still just 14th at 81.5%.

With Tristan Jarry still out, backup Alex Nedeljkovic is expected to make his eighth straight start in goal. Nedeljkovic has played very well, going 5-0-2 with a 2.78 GAA and .908 save percentage in that span. He made 30 saves to beat the Capitals last time out.

Pittsburgh is dealing with some injuries of their own. Forwards Noel Acciari (lower body) and Jansen Harkins (hand) are out, while defenseman John Ludvig is questionable with an illness. Jarry (illness) could potentially return to back up Nedeljkovic.

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Key Matchups and Betting Trends

Special teams could play a huge role in this game given the drastic difference in each team’s power play success. If the Penguins parade to the penalty box, the Lightning’s lethal man-advantage unit could make them pay. Pittsburgh will need to stay disciplined.

These teams have split their two meetings so far this season. The Penguins beat the Lightning 4-2 in Tampa Bay on November 30th, while the Bolts returned the favor with a 3-1 win in Tampa on December 6. The under hit in both of those lower-scoring affairs.

Some other notable betting trends:

The Lightning are 40-36 against the spread overall and 20-19 ATS on the roadThe Penguins are 36-40 against the spread overall and 17-20 ATS at home Lightning are 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous gameOver is 6-1 in Penguins last 7 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game

Lightning vs Penguins Pick & Prediction

This should be a close game between two desperate teams jockeying for playoff position. The Penguins have been playing very well lately and will have the home crowd behind them. However, the Lightning’s dynamic offense led by Kucherov is difficult to contain, especially if Pittsburgh’s penalty kill falters.

In the end, I give a slight lean to the Lightning at -115 on the moneyline. I think they are the slightly better overall team and Vasilevskiy gives them an edge in net. But the Penguins are certainly live home underdogs and it wouldn’t surprise me if they pulled it out.

For the total, I’m going with the over six goals. Yes, the under hit in the first two meetings, but the prior three meetings all saw at least eight goals scored. These are two of the higher-scoring teams in the league and I expect Crosby, Malkin, Kucherov and Stamkos to all get on the scoresheet. It will likely be a sweat, but I see a 4-3 type of game.

TBL vs PIT Picks:

Tampa Bay Lightning -115 MLOver 6 Goals (-118)

 

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