Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Odds, Player Props & Predictions

May 25, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Tigers catcher Jake Rogers (34) slides into second base and is called safe while Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette (11) catches the ball during the eighth inning of the game at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY SportsThe Tigers aim to take three of four from the Blue Jays when they meet in their series finale on Sunday morningYusei Kikuchi toes the rubber for the Jays while Casey Mize goes for the TigersSee the Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers odds, predictions, and player prop picks on May 26

The Toronto Blue Jays (23-28, 11-16 away) finish off a four-game set with the Detroit Tigers (25-27, 12-14 home) at Comerica Park on  Sunday morning (11:35 am ET). The Jays took the series opener on Thursday (9-1) but the Tigers answered with a pair of wins on Friday and Saturday (6-2, 2-1) and enter Sunday looking for their first three-game win streak since April 23.

With Yusei Kikuchi on the mound for Toronto facing Casey Mize for Detroit, the Blue Jays vs Tigers odds slightly favor the road team earning a split in the four-game series.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Odds

Sunday’s MLB odds list the Blue Jays as -120 road chalk with the Tigers coming back as +105 home underdogs. The game total is at just 8.0 in the pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. Toronto has been the fifth-best under bet this season (21-30 O/U) but the Tigers have hit the over at the fifth-highest rate (27-22-3 O/U).

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Odds as of May 25 at BetMGM. Claim the BetMGM bonus codes to bet on Sunday’s Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers matchup.  

After pounding out nine runs in the series opener, the Blue Jays’ bats have – as they’ve done so often this year – gone silent. Toronto scored just three runs in game two and three of the series combined and now sits fourth-last in the MLB in runs scored at just 193 through 50 games (3.86 RPG). Last season, then the Jays nabbed the final Wild Card in the AL, they ranked in the top half of baseball at 4.61 RPG.

Detroit’s offense has only been slightly better (209 runs in 51 games, 4.10 RPG) and they actually rank below Toronto in both wOBA (26th vs 19th) and wRC+ (24th vs 19th).

The MLB public betting splits show the majority of money on the Tigers to make it three in a row on Sunday; Detroit is getting 79% of moneyline handle as +105 underdogs. The public is also hammering over 8.0 runs, with 80% of handle on the over as of late Sunday night.

Toronto vs Detroit Starting Pitchers on May 26

The starting pitcher matchup for the series finale sees Yusei Kikuchi facing Casey Mize. The former is having a considerably better season than the latter, with a sparkling 2.64 ERA and a solid 1.12 WHIP. Kikuchi has a much higher strikeout percentage (25.8% vs 17.2%) and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his last four starts.

A picture of consistency, Kikuchi has only allowed more than three runs once all season, surrendering four over six innings to the NL West-leading LA Dodgers on April 27.

Yusei Kikuchi vs Casey Mize

KikuchiVSMize

The Detroit lineup has a very limited history against the 32-year-old lefty. Only five Tiger hitters have faced Kikuchi before and only two have faced him more than four times (Mark Canha and Gio Urshela). Canha has a .263 average and 1.101 OPS with two home runs in 19 at-bats while Gio Urshela is 3-for-12 with two doubles.

There is even less history between Mize and the Toronto hitters. Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are the only players who have faced the righty, going a combined 1-for-4 with a triple.

While Mize has an inflated 4.57 ERA on the season, that’s largely due to a disastrous start last time out, when he surrendered six runs on nine hits in just 1.2 innings of work against the Royals. Entering that game, Mize had a 3.50 ERA in his first eight starts of the season and had only allowed more than three runs on one occasion.

The 2018 #1 overall pick didn’t pitch at all in 2023 due to elbow and back surgery. He doesn’t appear to be feeling any ill-effects from the layoff with his velocity at an all-time high (95.1 mph) and his xFIP at a career-best 3.80.

Blue Jays vs Tigers Prediction

It’s become extremely difficult to back the Blue Jays as a favorite this season, especially on the road. Their lineup has the potential to play considerably better than it has so far, but their big bats are struggling and showing no signs for turning it around. George Springer has a .188 average, a .537 OPS, and -0.5 WAR. Justin Turner, who got off to a hot start, has seen his average fade to .225 and his WAR drop to 0.0.

With Kikuchi on the mound, I don’t expect the Detroit lineup to muster much offense, either, and eight runs feels like a generous run total. But with Toronto’s bullpen floundering (27th in ERA and 25th in xFIP), my pick on Sunday is similar to my pick in the series opener on Thursday: first 5 innings under 4.5.

TOR vs DET picks:

First 5 innings under 4.5 (-125) at FanDuelVlad Guerrero under 1.5 hits + George Springer under 1.5 hits (-100) at Caesars Sportsbook

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 MLB betting record: 12-7 (+2.18 units)

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